The computer chip

[dhayden]

Do you think there will be such a drastic change by the 2060s?

In a word: yes. I'm 52 and my kids have a hard time understanding the world of my childhood. I'm certain that my grandchildren will view my childhood as completely alien, just like I viewed my grandparents'. When I was an upper-middle class 12-year-old kid in the USA 40 years ago:
- We had no microwave oven.
- Situated midway between New York and Philadelphia, we had 2-15 TV channels available: probably more than almost anywhere else in the country.
- And no remote control.
- The TV was black-and-white.
- Telephones plugged into the wall. All of ours were rotary dial, but I think some neighbors had touch-tone dialing. There was a well-worn phone book by every telephone
- Long distance calls were expensive. I don't remember the exact prices but I think it was a few dollars per minute.
- Nobody had a computer in their house or office.
- My dad bought me a programmable hand-held scientific calculator. It had 98 program steps, an LED display and cost $195.
- The milkman delivered milk every other day.
- We rode our bikes around the neighborhood all afternoon, rarely telling our parents where we were going.
- Adults could smoke anywhere. Cigarettes were available in vending machines
- Few cars had air conditioning.
- Seatbelts were in cars, but few people wore them.
- airbags didn't exist.
- we wrote school papers with pen on paper.
- we researched topics using the World Book encyclopedia, which most families had in their home.
- Most purchases were made with cash.
- ATMs didn't exist.
- The exact location of the Titanic was a mystery.
- To drive to an unknown town you used a paper map.
- There was one mall in the area and it just opened. There were lots of shopping centers and vibrant towns with mom-and-pop shops.
- We listened to music on an FM radio or bought LP records.
- Cameras had film. It cost perhaps $10 to get a roll of 36 exposures developed. Before taking a shot you really had to consider if it was worth it.
- Home video didn't exist.
- everybody got the mumps, measles and chicken pox as a kid.

[RUNNER PRO AGARIO]

I used to have those mornings when I was 10 in India, basically 2 years ago.

[Ispil]

dhayden, those programmable handheld calculators today are just as crappy as back then and for the same price.

[admkrk]

@dhayden I'll be 52 next month, so I remember all of that. You forgot to mention slide rules, adding machines, and pay phones (Not sure where Clark Kent would change into Superman these days). :-)

I was not trying to infer that there would not be a lot of change, as there certainly has been so far. I just do not think it will be nearly as big. The industrial revolution had much to do with the changes from the last period, and the closest thing that has happened in this one is the internet.

[htirwin]

I was not trying to infer that there would not be a lot of change, as there certainly has been so far. I just do not think it will be nearly as big. The industrial revolution had much to do with the changes from the last period, and the closest thing that has happened in this one is the internet.

But there are quite a few emerging technologies that probably will eventually change the world. For example, directly interfacing the brain with a computer, human genetic manipulation to cure disease or for enhancement, virtual reality where we feed synthetic stimulus directly into our sensory organs, efficient controlled fusion, self driving cars, quantum computers, ... And then there are the things that I can't predict too.

[admkrk]

You do make some valid points, there are also some very problematic ones. "human genetic manipulation" for one, trials on plants are turning out to not be going as good as expected, the last time I noticed, GMOs are(were?) starting to turn up multiple problems and are banned in several countries. If there are that many problems with a simple corn plant, what is going to happen with humans? Are they still trying to clone animals? Virtual reality has limited uses. I was just in a discussion last week about how it could be used to cure phobias. No one countered my claim that it was productive in that area. Self driving cars scare the shit out of me, although if I remember right mercedes benz is coming close to actually achieving that. Fusion, on the other hand, would make a great improvement over fission. That alone could make changes possible like the Industrial Revolution did.

[Cubbi]

Indeed, a lot of people fear new technology, sometimes, unfortunately, to the point of actually banning it against all reason. Doesn't seem to affect computer tech though, except maybe when people take Kurtzwell seriously.